Nationalism to reunite for elections

Anova has rejected a proposal from Sumar to take part together in the Galician elections. The organization, who left BNG in 2012 lead by BNG founder and historic nationalist leader Xosé Manuel Beiras, causing a major crisis in the history of the nationalist movement, has rejected a proposal from Sumar to take part together to the Galician elections.

Analysis

While this decision cannot be seen as an explicit support to BNG, this news confirms the trend seen during the 2023 General Election, when Anova expressed public support for the BNG. The decision represents a major hussle for Sumar, because this means loosing the most significant part of the coalition capable to reach the nationalist electorate, therefore losing capacity to retrieve votes from BNG voters. This also implies that Sumar has no option other than leaning to the Spanish left, increasing reliance on Podemos and Esquerda Unida, and losing capacity to reach the Galician electorate.

Parameters

We reduce transfer from BNG to Sumar to 5%, and we assign 35% of current Sumar probability to BNG.