PP on the brink - first official survey

The Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS, the Spanish official survey institute) has released the results of the first pre-election survey. According to this survey, PP would reduce the number of seats from current 42 to 36-38, therefore on the brink of loosing the absolute majority. BNG would increase representation up to 23 seats, and PSdG would increase representation as well up to 17 seats. No new political parties would enter the Galician Parliament. On topics, CIS identifies unemployment (13.8%), health (10.3%) and economy (8..2%) as the most prominent topics. Interestingly the Galician Government appears in this ranking with a 5.5%. A 32.2% of the population perceives a worst situation compared with the prior legislature. On leadership, Ana Pontón gets thehighest rank with an average of 5,77, followed by Alfonso Rueda with 5.38, and the remaining candidates below 5. A 69.9% of Galicians plan to vote taking into account Galician issues, compared with a 20.3% who will give precedence to Spanish issues.

Analysis

CIS is the authoritative source of sociological survey data in Spain. We do not find any significant shortcoming in the method, or the data. However we need to take into account a bias towards left-wing parties. The survey suggests a significant improvement of BNG, with a slightly weaning by still steady support to PP, and a slight increase of the PSdG, in line with our model. The good valuation of the main opposition leader, Ana Pontón, reinforces the idea of BNG getting a boost in this election. A significant divergence is the lack of representation for DO.

Parameters

We keep our parameters as they are.