Second official survey - BNG stronger, PP continues decline

Second official survey from the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS). PP continues the decline detected in the prior survey, getting 34-38 seats. BNG continues growing up to 22-26 seats. PSdG stays as third party with 13-15, diminishing its prior support. The CIS now recognizes our forecast, opening slight options both for Sumar and DO. Leadership ranking stays the same, with BNG candidate Ana Pontón leading the rank, and PSdG Besteiro improving its valuation. The CIS has asked Galicians about the leader who most cares about Galicia, with BNG Ana Pontón leading the rank.

Analysis

The results show coherence with our own model, including on DO and Sumar. Howeer, traditional bias of CIS towards left-wing parties ask for some bias mitigation.

Parametrization

We keep our model as is.