Electo.gal 2024 - Pre-vote estimation

Ballot boxes have just closed. During this week, we have been updating our model, taking input from experts, and modifying parameters looking at the evolution of news. Our updated model, below, keeps the novelties (DOU entering the Parliament for the first time)

Compared to our prior model, this one adds increased participation, increased likelihood to vote for BNG due to an excellent campaign, reduced likelihood to vote PP due to irregular campaign and lack of leadership coordination, and reduced likelihood to vote Vox and Sumar due to failure of national leadership to successfully engage in the campaign.

The result still shows DOu entering the parliament, but reduced support to PP introduces options for BNG to preside the Galician government.