First private company reliable survey - No relevant changes expected

The first reliable survey (see our post on methodology) has arrived today, published by Spanish mainstream journal El Pais, and produced by social research company 40db. Published analysis shows no significant change in current parliamentary structure.

Analysis

This study is an online CAWI made of 1.2k surveys dissaggregated by circunscription, gender, age, population size and social class, done between 2 and 4 January 2024. This survey provides immediate and unrestricted access to the survey data, allowing us to produce our own analysis. We found unnoticed interesting results focus on Sumar, the coalition led by Labor and Social Economy Minister of Galician origin, Yolanda Díaz. The survey portrays Sumar suporters as those having the more critical perspective about the political situation, and those more willing to change their vote respective to the 2020 election, with only 24,6% keeping their support (taking as reference Galicia en Común), and the remaining vote going to others (22.4%), BNG (20%) and Podemos (17.1%). VOX’s supporters show a similar potential to change, this time to PP. Analysis of memory of vote (casted in 2020 election) shows an interesting disparity between ‘remembered’ (10,9%) and actual vote to BNG (5,7%), suggesting a perception of this party as associated to victory.

We find interesting that the survey did not include Democracia Ourensana among the relevant parties, while including the less relevant VOX. Even in that case, DOu appears as one of the possible extra-parliamentary parties, while below the electoral barrier. We believe this may be the result of oversight by the surveyor, or may be Spanish politics bias, where VOX is a more interesting study object compared with a less known Dou. This party governs the capital city of Ourense, it has a TV, capacity to influence local media, and concentrates votes in an overrepresented circumscription, so we believe this may be a weak point of an otherwise very interesting and useful work.

On topics, inflation is the issue that receives more attention across parties (63%), with the health system reaching the70% level among the left.

Parametrizations

We increase likelihood for BNG, Dou and PP. We reduce likelihood for Sumar and VOX. We keep PSOE as it is.