General Elections 2023 - PPdG grows, VOX shrinks

Analysis

PPdG has achieved the highest number of votes and seats in Galicia, registering a significant growth relative to the prior General election. We can find no meaningful differences between the Galician and Spanish behavior of PP voters, other than a slightly less stronger growth (12.25% in Spain, 11.65% in Galicia) that we cannot use to infer any relevant outcome. We believe that success of PPdG may come from increased participation (from 66.6% in the prior General election to current 73.14%) and from shrinking parties Ciudadanos (almost inexistent) and VOX. Despite this excellent result, it does not look like PP will be able to enter the Government due to the need of relying on mutually exclusive VOX and nationalist forces, limiting the potentially beneficial effect for the Galician election. The contrary case is represented by PSOE, who is more likely to form a governmental coalition thanks to a slight increase in votes probably derived from increased participation. A consistent history of agreements between socialists and conservative nationalists may indicate a reduced likelihood of new elections. PSdG, who loses 3 out of its previously achieved 10 seats, a result that is clearly a relevant signal for Galician elections considering the general growth of PSOE at the Spanish level in this election, and the precedent of significant decrease in support at the municipal election, as they together may be signaling a strong trend. Sumar keeps the two previosly achieved seats, but it registers a slight diminishing support similar to the growth registered by BNG, a signal that confirms a sustained growing trend which was not enough to increase its current seat.

Parametrization

We strongly decrease VOX’s, moderately increase PPdG, moderately decrease PSdG’s, slightly increase BNG’s and slightly decrease Sumar’s voting probability. Increase for PPdG may be stronger depending on how they manage the perception in public opinion on the outcome of the elections when the investiture is final.