Municipal election - DOu, BNG, PPdG up; PSdG, Mareas, Podemos down; Cs, VOX (almost) out.

Similarly as in Spain, PSOE registered in Galicia a significant reduction in support. This reduction may get compensated to retain power in all major cities except Ferrol by a remarkable increase of BNG, who now has options to govern the capital city of Galicia, Santiago de Compostela, for the first time. In addition to major cities, progressives may retain the provincial governments (“Deputacións”) of A Coruña and Lugo, loosing Pontevedra to PPdG in an unexpected result that reflects the strength of PPdG. This strength was not enough though to recover the absolute majority in the provincial government of Ourense, where they increasily rely on the populist local party Democracia Ourensana. A PPdG President in the provincial government of Ourense is likely, considering their mutual reliance, because the local populist party has registered remarkably (and unexpected) good results, managing to retrieve the majority of the city, but not enough to govern alone. Mareas experienced a debacle in all major cities while keeping some support in middle-range populations, likely the result of the failure in forging a coalition with Podemos, who gets even more marginal results. On the less leftist side, Cs and VOX got no plausible options for government with the current configuration, with PPdG benefitting the most from this stark difference with results at the Spanish level. The final configuration of the local governments is expected in about two weeks, consistently with electoral legislation.

Most relevant outcomes: Sustained growing trend of BNG, together with the abrupt reduction in support to Mareas, may be relevant to the configuration of a progressive coalition in the Spanish Congress (election expected by the end of the year), and also for the government of Galicia (election expected during the first semester of 2024). Bargaining capacity by DOu may lead to the emergence of a new political actor at the the Galician level if appropriately managed. Overrepresentation of the Ourense province may lead DOu to enter the the Galician Parliament, conditioning the majority of PP to preferences of a populist party. Ourense is clearly a place to be looking at in electoral terms.

At state level, results show a clear increase in support for PP, together with a weaning support for PSOE. Leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo is likely to get the most benefit, confirming the ‘elections winner’ aura that he has been successfully curating, highly increasing his chances to the General election, expected by the end of the year. In the opposite side, results are likely to increase tensions in the governing coalition, including President of the Government Pedro Sanchez now likely to be internally questioned by conservative socialists, and also more vulnerable to pressure from left members of the coalition. Results in Catalonia may be interpreted as a dimishing support for seccessionist parties, with a remarkable increase of Basque Country nationalists on the left, both plausibly relevant outcomes for the next General election.